Robinson Analytics U.S. National Government Control Forecast
My model is now giving V.P. Joe Biden an edge to win this election with a 65.5% probability of winning the popular vote nationwide and a 58.8% probability of winning the electoral college. The differences between the two in the electoral college is not statistically significant. So there is a possibility that Trump could win. However, Biden has the edge to win it. Graphic of my model is below.
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When I take a look at the control of the United States Senate. It is very similar to the presidential race. The Democrats have an edge to take over the Senate. However, the probability of their control of the Senate is not statistically significant. So there is a chance that Republicans could retain control of the upper chamber. See the chart below.
In my analysis of the control of the Senate as it concerns current polling data, below is one possible scenario. Which confirms the statistical conclusion that I came to when looking at the prediction markets. See the graphic below.
When it comes to the House of Representatives, the Democrats have a 85.3% probability of retaining control of the lower chamber. See the chart below.
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