Robinson Analytics Georgia Senate Races (Control of the Senate) Forecast
Due to the fact that the two Georgia Senate races will determine which party controls the Senate, I thought I would weigh in on the races.
In the first Senate race, both parties did not reach the 50% of voters threshold and thus it is headed to a runoff in January 2021. As you can see from my analysis below, my model is giving Democrat Ossoff a 55% probability of winning this race. However, the difference in these candidates is not statistically significant, thus the Democrat has the edge to win it but it is not assured. Senator Perdue could still squeak it out.
In the second GA Senate race, both of the candidates did not reach the 50% of the vote threshold as well, so they are headed to a runoff in 2021. My model is giving the Republican Loeffler a 65% probability of a win over her Democrat challenger Wamock. Loeffler’s lead is statistically significant. So it is likely that she will win the runoff.
In summary, it is most likely that the GOP will maintain their control of the Senate. We should have divided government with a 49 Dem to 51 GOP composition come the new Congress in 2021.
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