Robinson Analytics Correctly Forecast U.S. National Gov’t Elections Update (11.4.2020)
November 4th AM Actual Update (Presidential Race):
It looks like my forecast for the popular vote is holding. See chart above. However, it looks like my electoral college forecast is holding as well. Biden had an edge to win it, but his advantage in the electoral college was not statistically significant. This race will most likely come down to Pennsylvania. The current vote counts are trending in President Trump’s favor. We will have to see if this holds…
The constitution requires that the vote be counted on the day of the election. Some states have overrode that constitutional requirement and extended the days the vote can be counted. We will have to wait and see if this is contested in courts and, if it is, how it plays out.
October 31, 2020 Forecast (Presidential Race):
My model is now giving V.P. Joe Biden an edge to win this election with a 65.5% probability of winning the popular vote nationwide and a 58.8% probability of winning the electoral college. The differences between the two in the electoral college is not statistically significant. So there is a possibility that Trump could win. However, Biden has the edge to win it. Graphic of my model is below.
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November 4th AM Actual Update (Senate):
The GOP is trending to keep a narrow majority as of this morning. The Senate races still uncalled as of this morning are: Alaska (likely GOP), Georgia (Likely GOP), Georgia Special (Headed to a runoff), Maine (Likely GOP) and Michigan (Trending GOP). The Senate could be GOP 51 or 52, or GOP 50 and DEM 50. It doesn’t look like the DEMS will able to take outright control as of this writing.
October 31, 2020 Forecast (Senate):
When I take a look at the control of the United States Senate. It is very similar to the presidential race. The Democrats have an edge to take over the Senate. However, the probability of their control of the Senate is not statistically significant. So there is a chance that Republicans could retain control of the upper chamber. See the chart below.
In my analysis of the control of the Senate as it concerns current polling data, below is one possible scenario. Which confirms the statistical conclusion that I came to when looking at the prediction markets. See the graphic below.
November 4, 2020 AM Actual Update (House of Representatives):
As of this writing, the GOP has picked up 4 house seats. However, the DEMS are currently trending to hold the House of Representatives. It looks like our forecast is holding here.
October 31, 2020 Forecast (House of Representatives):
When it comes to the House of Representatives, the Democrats have a 85.3% probability of retaining control of the lower chamber. See the chart below.
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