Back to School Corona-virus Update
With college students starting to arrive back at their dorms or not, and public and private schools starting after labor day, I thought I would share out where we stand with the Covid-19 pandemic.
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In this analysis, I take a look at what the stock markets are forecasting for the top 10 countries around the world (China is missing because of the suspicion around their data), top 10 countries Covid-19 case history, United States case history and the Covid-19 case history for some of the top impacted states.
In the chart below, the markets for the respective countries are communicating that Canada’s economy is expected to perform the best as we come out of labor day weekend. The United States economy is forecasting to come in second best with India forecasted to come in third best.
The markets are important here because they are also taking into account the corona-virus pandemic spread, progress with therapeutics and vaccines that might be available to combat the virus soon. So they give us a glimpse into what may be unfolding.
From the graph below, you can see the the United States confirmed case count has been slowly declining over the past 3 to 4 weeks. Brazil has now overtaken the U.S. with the most daily confirmed cases. However, as you look at the other leading countries in the world, their case count has been increasing over this same time period.
When I take a look at the trend-line in daily cases in the United States (see graph below), it confirms what you see at a global level in the chart above. Daily cases it looks like peaked the third week of July. Since then, they are definitely on a decline. However, they are still at a much higher level than the previous peak the third week of April.
Even though we have experienced a resurgence in the cases confirmed, we did not experience a resurgence in deaths back to the April level. There has been a spike in deaths, but the spike is not near the level that we experienced earlier this year. So that tells me that populations that are contracting it are more different now and better able to handle it. It also tells me that therapies for treatment have gotten better, even though we don’t have a vaccine yet.
The state experiencing the worst of the virus outbreak to-date is Louisiana. It is almost double the outbreak of the average confirmed cases of the other states. Florida and Arizona come in second and third worst in terms of confirmed cases to-date. To see what the exact value is, just hover over the data point.
However, when I take a look at how deadly the virus has been by state, New Jersey comes in first here. New York comes in as second worst and Massachusetts comes in third worst. So, even though Louisiana has the distinction of having the most cases, it comes in 5th in terms of being able to manage the virus in terms of how lethal it is on the population. To see what the exact value is, just hover over the data point.
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