Robinson Analytics Correctly Forecast Georgia Senate Races Updated Forecast (Jan 1st)
It’s been almost two months since the general election on November 3, 2020. Thought I would weigh in with another update on the races to see how the Georgia runoff elections are going that will be held on January 5, 2021, since they will determine the control of the United States Senate.
In the first or regular Senate race, both parties did not reach the 50% of voters threshold and thus we are in the in the runoff period.
My model is now giving Democrat Ossoff a 52% chance of winning his race and Senator Perdue 45% chance of winning. Be mindful that Democrat Ossoff lead is not statistically significant. So he has an edge to win it at the moment, but Perdue could still squeak it out. We will have to see how this ultimately plays out January 5, 2021.
Take a look at a recent headline…
Take a look at a recent headline…
Sen. David Perdue, facing tight runoff in Georgia, will quarantine after close Covid contact
In the second GA Senate race or special election, both of the candidates did not reach the 50% of the vote threshold as well, so they are in the runoff period as well that ends on January 5, 2021. My model is giving the Democrat challenger Warnock a 54% probability of a win over Republican Loeffler. Warnock’s lead is not statistically significant. So he has an edge to win it at this point, but Loeffler could squeak it out.
In summary, it is unclear that the GOP will maintain their control of the Senate. We may or may not have divided government come the new Congress in 2021 as of this writing. The Democrat challengers have an edge to win their races, but their probability leads are not statistically significant. Which means, the GOP candidates could squeak it out.
“We use analytics on your work and business processes to gather the critical insights that you need to impact your business performance.” Click here to schedule a complimentary discussion session about how Robinson Analytics can help you. To learn more, you can access his website at www.robinsonanalytics.com.