Robinson Analytics Virginia Covid-19 Outbreak Forecast
I have put together a model to forecast when we might peak in new confirmed cases in the state of Virginia. As the chart depicts, my model forecast 3 different scenarios. In the first scenario, we could peak in infections by May 5th. In the second scenario, we could peak in infections by the week of July 17th. Finally, in the third scenario, we could peak in infections by the week of August 21st. It looks like infections are still peaking as of April 27th. To learn more, click here
I am releasing the latest results from my Virginia Covid-19 Growth Forecast model this morning. It looks like the outbreak is still peaking as of April 27th. Which is in line with my peak forecast. See chart above. My model is forecasting that the virus will be expanding into next month. However, the model estimates, that should Virginia keep on the current trend (and that’s a big if), the model is forecasting that the outbreak could be essentially contained by the end of May 2020. I am sure there will be variances among the localities within the state. My model assumes that containment efforts will be maintained and that reporting is accurate.
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