Robinson Analytics Texas Covid-19 Outbreak Forecast
I have put together a model to forecast when we might peak in new confirmed cases in the state of Texas. As the chart depicts, my model forecast 3 different scenarios. In the first scenario, we could peak in infections by April 12th. In the second scenario, we could peak in infections by the week of July 17th. Finally, in the third scenario, we could peak in infections by the week of October 1st. However, it looks like infections peaked April 10th. So our first more likely scenario bore out. To learn more, click here
I am releasing the latest results from my Texas Covid-19 Growth Forecast model this morning. It looks like the outbreak peaked April 10th. Which is in line with my peak forecast. See chart above. My model is forecasting that the virus will be expanding for a little while yet. However, the model estimates, that should the Texas keep on the current trend (and that’s a big if), the model is forecasting that the outbreak could be essentially contained by the end of April 2020. I am sure there will be variances among the localities within the state. My model assumes that containment efforts will be maintained and that reporting is accurate
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