Robinson Analytics Tennessee Covid-19 Outbreak Forecast
I have put together a model to forecast when we might peak in new confirmed cases in the state of Tennessee. As the chart depicts, my model forecast 3 different scenarios. In the first scenario, we could peak in infections by April 6th. In the second scenario, we could peak in infections by the week of May 5th. Finally, in the third scenario, we could peak in infections by the week of May 19th. It looks like infections are still peaking as of April 25th. To learn more, click here
I am releasing the latest results from my Tennessee Covid-19 Growth Forecast model this afternoon. It looks like the outbreak is still peaking as of April 25th. Which is in line with my peak forecast. See chart above. My model is forecasting that the virus will be expanding into next month. However, the model estimates, that should the Tennessee keep on the current trend (and that’s a big if), the model is forecasting that the outbreak could be essentially contained by the end of May 2020. I am sure there will be variances among the localities within the state. My model assumes that containment efforts will be maintained and that reporting is accurate. I want to add a caveat here. My concern here is that Tennessee maybe opening a little soon, even though the case count has been on the low side in comparison to other states.
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