How is the Delta variant of Covid going to impact the U.S.?
With over 50% of the new United States Covid-19 cases are of the Delta variant variety, and not the original Alpha variety, I thought I would weigh in on the severity of this and what it might mean for us.
Below find the summary of findings from The Harris Poll of the American public on this subject.
As you can tell from the summary of the polling data above, American’s are not alarmed yet, but they are concerned.
When I take a look at World-Wide Daily New Covid Cases data, you can see from the chart below there is an uptake in the outbreak. So it would appear that we might be in for a new outbreak.
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) is an independent global health research center at the University of Washington and they have developed a model to forecast the virus. Below is a chart from their model and they are forecasting a brief spike globally the beginning of July. However, their model is forecasting that the spike will be short-lived at this time in their base case (purple line). The red line is their worst case scenario.
In looking at the Covid Daily New Cases data reflecting the activity of the virus in the U.S., we are not finding a spike here, though. Even though 50% of the new Covid cases are not the Alpha variant but the Delta variant. See the chart below.
So we will have to see how this bears out. It could be a rocky ride come this fall. I say this because the Bond market has been communicating that it is not that confident about the economy recently. See the chart below. Its too early to tell, but there could be some challenges coming in the future.
Read this article…
CDC data shows highly transmissible delta variant is now the dominant Covid strain in the U.S.
The highly transmissible delta variant is now the dominant coronavirus strain in the United States, surpassing the alpha variant, according to Covid-19 modeling data released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Delta, the variant that was first found in India and is now in at least 104 countries, represented 51.7% of new Covid cases in the U.S. over the two weeks ended July 3, according to recently updated estimates by the CDC. Meanwhile, the proportion of new cases caused by alpha, which was first found in the U.K., was just 28.7% over the same time period, according to the U.S. agency.
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