What’s Causing The Increase in Corona-virus Cases?
I am concerned about all of the media coverage I am seeing around the explosion in Covid-19 cases in our country. Because this could impact our economic recovery. With 14 million + private jobs to recover yet, this could be problematic.
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Have you seen some of the headlines recently…
As the Virus Surged, Florida Partied. Tracking the Revelers Has Been Tough, NY Times: With the coronavirus exploding, trying to trace the contacts of every positive case has become unrealistic in Florida, especially among elusive partygoers.
Coronavirus updates: Seven-day average case total in the U.S. sets record for 27th straight day, Washington Post: Officials in states with surging coronavirus cases issued dire warnings and blamed outbreaks on early reopenings Sunday as the seven-day average for daily new cases in the United States reached a record high for the 27th straight day.
My analysis seems to contradict some of the reporting.
In the chart above, I take a look at people visits to restaurants, cafes, shopping centers, theme parks, museums, libraries, and movie theaters in the top 6 economies in the world.
As you can tell from the chart, the United States citizens are not visiting these type of establishments more than Japan, Germany or the United Kingdom. Our mobility is not out of line with some of our competitive partners. Reporting that because our states are opening up are what is the primary cause of this spike in itself doesn’t appear to be the right answer. it is not consistent with the mobility data of our citizens movement around the country.
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The mobility of U.S. citizens in relation to local parks, national parks, public beaches, marinas, dog parks, plazas, and public gardens is on par with Germany, France and the United Kingdom. It doesn’t appear that there is a national trend of American’s over the top in their frequenting these public spaces. See the chart above.
It doesn’t appear that American’s are being forced to return to their work-places too soon either. As you can tell from the chart above, Japan, Germany and France are all returning to their work-place in greater numbers than in the United States.
Cumulative deaths per million in the U.S., are below both France and the United Kingdom. Even though one death is too many, America’s death rate is not the top in the world.
So the question remains. What is causing this spike in cases?
Covid-19 cases are increasing, but as you can see from the chart above, the United States is the leader in the world in testing. You can also see from the chart, that some of our major partners, like India and Japan, are seriously behind in their testing capacity.
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