What might the decade of the 2020’s look like?
I have expanded my analytics repertoire to include Cycle Forecasting. I have been studying cycles for several years now. Cycles are nothing more than recurring historical patterns that one can refer to as the dark matter of the universe. You know something is going on but you just don’t know what it is. You also call the events that happen by these cycles Black Swans.
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This new tool in my tool kit lets me look at these patterns in history and start to offer possible forecast scenarios that may happen currently or in the near future.
My Cycle Forecasting toolkit points to two different events in our history to point to that would give us a clue as to what is on the horizon going forward.
Let’t take a look at our 100 year Cycle
This cycle points to the 1918 Spanish Flu outbreak as a potential guide as to what might be going on in our near future. You can read a summary of it below.
1918 Pandemic (H1N1 virus) The 1918 influenza pandemic was the most severe pandemic in recent history. It was caused by an H1N1 virus with genes of avian origin. Although there is not universal consensus regarding where the virus originated, it spread worldwide during 1918-1919.
This Spanish Flue Pandemic lasted from February 1918 – April 1920. However, it also led to a shallow recession (gray areas of the graphic below). Does that have any familiarity with what is being forecasted for our current recession?
However, when you look at the decade that followed, there were a series of recessions that ultimately led to the Great Depression.
When I take a look at our 90 year cycle, that points to the year 1930. The beginning of the Great Depression. Thus Cycle Forecasting is pointing, perhaps, to some difficult times ahead in our future.
Watch a video below where Ray Dalio (Legendary hedge fund manager) talks about the debt cycle and the historical pattern it reveals…
My approach to using Cycle Forecasting to give us a glimpse of what might be in store for us, comes out of a more technical approach. I thought I would share some fundamental analysis that is corroborating my technical analysis.
This fundamental analysis comes from Nouriel Roubini, NYU professor and former White House senior economist under U.S. President Clinton. He joined BNN Bloomberg to discuss why he predicts a depression will hit the global economy in the middle of the decade. Watch his interview below:
If you would prefer to read a summary of his analysis, from a fundamental analysis perspective, you can access an article below that summarizes his findings…
An Economist Who Called the 2008 Crash Says We’re In for a Long Depression
In September 2006, Nouriel Roubini told the International Monetary Fund what it didn’t want to hear. Standing before an audience of economists at the organization’s headquarters, the New York University professor warned that the U.S. housing market would soon collapse – and, quite possibly, bring the global financial system down with it.
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